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Legal | March 18, 2026 | 7 min read

What Happens to China Tariffs After the Supreme Court Ruling?

China Tariff Refund
What Happens to China Tariffs After the Supreme Court Ruling?

The Supreme Court’s February 20, 2026 ruling in Learning Resources v. Trump eliminated all IEEPA tariffs on China — but not all tariffs on China. Section 301 tariffs (7.5–25%) remain in effect. Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum remain. Normal MFN duty rates are unchanged. Only the IEEPA layer was struck down, and only the IEEPA layer is refundable. Understanding what changed and what did not is essential for calculating your actual exposure and making supply chain decisions going forward.

What changed on February 20, 2026

The Supreme Court held that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not authorize the president to impose tariffs on merchandise imports. This eliminated every IEEPA tariff imposed under Executive Orders 14195 (fentanyl) and 14257 (reciprocal) — on China and all other affected countries.

IEEPA fentanyl tariff on China: ELIMINATED. The 20% fentanyl surcharge (HTS 9903.01.20 and 9903.01.24) that applied to all Chinese-origin goods since February 4, 2025, is gone. Every dollar collected is refundable.

IEEPA reciprocal tariff on China: ELIMINATED. The 34–125% reciprocal surcharge (HTS 9903.01.25 and 9903.01.63) that applied since April 2, 2025, is gone. Every dollar collected is refundable.

Total IEEPA exposure removed: up to 145% at peak. For most of the covered period, the combined IEEPA rate on China was 54% (20% fentanyl + 34% reciprocal). At peak (April 9–11, 2025), it reached 145%. All of it is refundable. See the complete rate history for exact dates and amounts.

What did NOT change

Four categories of tariffs on China remain fully in effect. None of these were imposed under IEEPA, so the Supreme Court ruling does not apply to them.

Section 301 tariffs: STILL IN EFFECT. Rates of 7.5–25% under HTS 9903.88.xx continue to apply to Chinese imports across four product lists. These tariffs have been in effect since 2018 — they predate IEEPA by seven years. Separate litigation challenges them, but no court has struck them down. They are not refundable at this time.

Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum: STILL IN EFFECT. A 25% tariff on steel and a 10% tariff on aluminum from China (and most other countries) remain. These were imposed under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, a different legal authority entirely. Not affected by the IEEPA ruling.

Normal MFN (Most Favored Nation) duty rates: UNCHANGED. Standard tariff rates under the Harmonized Tariff Schedule remain. These range from 0% (many electronics, toys) to 32% (some textiles) depending on product classification. These are congressionally authorized tariffs, not executive actions.

Anti-dumping and countervailing duties (AD/CVD): UNCHANGED. Product-specific duties imposed through the Department of Commerce on Chinese goods found to be dumped below fair market value or subsidized by the Chinese government remain. These affect specific products — certain steel, aluminum, solar cells, furniture, and other categories — and are imposed through administrative proceedings, not executive orders.

Net effect: before and after examples

Example 1: Consumer electronics (HTS 8471, laptops). Before ruling: 0% MFN + 25% Section 301 + 54% IEEPA = 79% total duty. After ruling: 0% MFN + 25% Section 301 = 25% total duty. The 54% IEEPA portion is refundable. Effective rate dropped by 54 percentage points.

Example 2: Toys (HTS 9503). Before ruling: 0% MFN + 0% Section 301 (not on any 301 list) + 54% IEEPA = 54% total duty. After ruling: 0% MFN + 0% Section 301 = 0% total duty. The full 54% is refundable. Toys return to duty-free status.

Example 3: Ceramic tile (HTS 6907). Before ruling: 0% MFN + 25% Section 301 + 54% IEEPA + 200% anti-dumping duty = 279% total duty. After ruling: 0% MFN + 25% Section 301 + 200% AD = 225% total duty. The 54% IEEPA portion is refundable, but the product still carries 225% in non-IEEPA duties. AD/CVD products have limited practical benefit from the IEEPA refund if the remaining duties are prohibitive.

Example 4: Apparel (HTS 6109, cotton t-shirts). Before ruling: 16.5% MFN + 7.5% Section 301 (List 4A) + 54% IEEPA = 78% total duty. After ruling: 16.5% MFN + 7.5% Section 301 = 24% total duty. The 54% IEEPA portion is refundable.

Five steps importers should take now

Step 1: File your IEEPA refund claim. This is the immediate action item. CBP’s CAPE portal is expected mid-April 2026. Prepare your data now. See the CAPE preparation guide for detailed instructions, or gather your required documentation. Both fentanyl and reciprocal IEEPA programs are refundable — see the fentanyl vs. reciprocal breakdown for how the two programs stack.

Step 2: Calculate your net duty position going forward. With IEEPA eliminated, determine the effective tariff rate on each of your China-sourced products. If your products carry Section 301 tariffs, those costs remain. Adjust pricing and margin models accordingly.

Step 3: Reassess sourcing shifts made during IEEPA. Many importers moved production from China to Vietnam, India, or Mexico specifically to avoid IEEPA tariffs. With IEEPA gone, China’s cost competitiveness has improved substantially. Products that were 54% more expensive from China are now back to their pre-IEEPA cost structure (plus Section 301, if applicable). Evaluate whether rebalancing makes sense.

Step 4: Monitor Section 301 litigation. The ongoing challenge to Section 301 tariffs could produce a separate refund opportunity. Keep records of all Section 301 duties paid. If the tariffs are struck down, you will want to be ready to file immediately.

Step 5: Request a free assessment. A comprehensive assessment calculates your exact refundable IEEPA amount, identifies any approaching protest deadlines, and separates IEEPA from non-IEEPA duties across your entire entry portfolio. Firms like tariffresolution.com and tariffbuyouts.com offer both government filing support and immediate capital through claim assignment. Trade attorneys and customs brokers can also assist through the Tariff Partners program.

Deadline information

Entries have a 180-day protest window after liquidation. If your earliest IEEPA-period entries (February 2025) have already been liquidated, the protest deadline may be approaching. Check your entry liquidation statuses in ACE immediately. Filing a protest preserves your right to a refund even if CAPE is not yet available.

There is no announced deadline for CAPE declarations, but entries that have been liquidated beyond the 180-day protest window may lose eligibility. Do not assume you have unlimited time.

FAQ

Q: Are all tariffs on China going away? A: No. Only IEEPA tariffs were struck down. Section 301 tariffs (7.5–25%), Section 232 tariffs on steel/aluminum (10–25%), MFN duties, and anti-dumping/countervailing duties all remain in effect. China imports still face significant tariffs on many product categories.

Q: Should I move production back to China now that IEEPA is gone? A: It depends on your product’s full tariff profile. If your product carries no Section 301 tariff and no AD/CVD duty, China sourcing returns to pre-IEEPA cost levels. If your product carries 25% Section 301, that cost remains regardless of IEEPA. Evaluate the total landed cost, not just the IEEPA component.

Q: Is there a deadline to file for my IEEPA refund? A: CBP has not announced a CAPE filing deadline, but individual entries have 180-day protest windows after liquidation. Entries liquidated in late 2025 or early 2026 may have protest deadlines approaching in mid-2026. Check your liquidation statuses and file protests on any entries nearing the 180-day mark. Do not wait.

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